A Risk Prediction Model for Reintervention After Total Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Connection Repair

Aditya Sengupta, Kimberlee Gauvreau, Aditya Kaza, Christopher W. Baird, David N. Schidlow, Pedro J. Del Nido, Meena Nathan

Boston Children’s Hospital and Harvard Medical School. Harvard School of Public Health.
United States

Annals of Thoracic Surgery
Ann Thorac Surg 2023; 116: 796-802
DOI: 10.1016/j.athoracsur.2022.05.058

Abstract
Background: Outcomes after total anomalous pulmonary venous connection (TAPVC) repair remain suboptimal due to recurrent pulmonary vein (PV) obstruction requiring reinterventions. We sought to develop a clinical prediction rule for PV reintervention after TAPVC repair.
Methods: Data from consecutive patients who underwent TAPVC repair at a single institution from January 1980 to January 2020 were retrospectively reviewed after Institutional Review Board approval. The primary outcome was postdischarge (late) unplanned PV surgical or transcatheter reintervention. Echocardiographic criteria were used to assess PV residual lesion severity at discharge (class 1: no residua; class 2: minor residua; class 3: major residua). Competing risk models were used to develop a weighted risk score for late reintervention.
Results: Of 437 patients who met entry criteria, there were 81 (18.5%) reinterventions at a median follow-up of 15.6 (interquartile range, 5.5-22.2) years. On univariable analysis, minor and major PV residua, age, single-ventricle physiology, infracardiac and mixed TAPVC, and preoperative obstruction were associated with late reintervention (all P < .05). The final risk prediction model included PV residua (class 2: subdistribution hazard ratio [SHR], 4.8; 95% CI, 2.8-8.1; P < .001; class 3: SHR, 6.4; 95% CI, 3.5-11.7; P < .001), age <1 year (SHR, 3.3; 95% CI, 1.3-8.5; P = .014), and preoperative obstruction (SHR, 1.8; 95% CI, 1.1-2.8; P = .015). A risk score comprising PV residua (class 2 or 3: 3 points), age (neonate or infant: 2 points), and obstruction (1 point) was formulated. Higher risk scores were significantly associated with worse freedom from reintervention (P < .001).
Conclusions: A risk prediction model of late reintervention may guide prognostication of high-risk patients after TAPVC repair.

Category
Stenosis or Obstruction of Pulmonary Veins Following Surgical Repair of Anomalous Pulmonary Venous Connections
Incidence or Prevalence of Disease
Patient Factors Influencing the Onset, Severity or Outcome of Disease
Diagnostic Testing. Risk Stratification

Year of Publication: 2023

Age Focus: Pediatric

Article Type: Retrospective Observational Cohort Studies (>10 patients)

Article Access: Free PDF File or Full Text Article Available Through PubMed or DOI: No